- Why hybrids may end up helping nobody by
- Environment | 3:56 p.m. | Thu 18 Oct 2007
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So what if the future’s got lots of hybrid cars in it? The world may not look any different. Indeed, it may actually look worse. Why? Because of something called the “Khazzoom-Brookes Postulate”.
This catchy name was devised in 1992 by US economist Harry Saunders. He used it to refer to the work of two other academics: J. Daniel Khazzoom, another US energy economist; and Len Brookes, formerly the chief economist at the UK Atomic Energy Authority. What all these men have in common is the belief that as technologies become more efficient, so the benefits at the micro-level are offset by greater energy consumption at the macro-level. In other words, if our cars require less fuel to run, we’ll simply drive them more often, and actually consume more energy in aggregate than before.
Depressingly, we can already see this happening. Emissions from today’s cars are dramatically lower than from most vehicles before the hybrid revolution, yet car ownership is soaring and we’re driving more than ever before. Our total car usage continues to climb year-on-year.
The knock-on implications of this trend are serious. Cars still absorb a huge amount of energy during their manufacture – around 15% of their total cost to the environment. So, even though they’re increasingly being designed to be recycled, getting them on the road is costly in itself.
Also, we’re continuing to use massive amounts of energy building and maintaining our road networks. The UK’s transport planning system is still dominated by road-building schemes, even though they’re becoming ever more economically and environmentally expensive .
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If the cost to drivers for their fuel use falls, we will see this effect. It was seen in the more energy efficient cars offered after the first energy crisis. If the only effect of our current energy crisis is the use of hybrid cars, we will see effect happen again.
Nevertheless, if our governments also respond with a carbon tax, or an equivalent cost for an emissions permit, the cost of fuel will not fall so far. If we also have oil users pay for the costs governments pay to stabilize oil prices, in the distortions to their foreign policy, in their military, etc., fuel costs to the drivers may not fall at all. This is especially important for behavior to be seen in the U.S. where no gas taxes are imposed that could be interpreted as having either purpose.
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